Put a real value on every lead
To an ad platform, a form fill from your best prospect can look identical to one from someone who will never buy. Value modeling shows the difference.
What is value modeling?
Value modeling assigns an estimated dollar value to leads and funnel stages, based on how likely they are to become revenue. Those values replace a simple lead count, so marketing teams and ad platforms can aim for quality.
Why a lead count can mislead you
Counting leads treats them all as equal, and they aren't. Campaigns can hit their lead goals while sending your sales team people who were never going to buy.
Valuable outcomes can also take too long to help a campaign. Ad platforms only accept conversions within a limited window after the click, and they learn slowly from rare, late results. Early-stage values give them a useful signal much sooner.
What's included
Funnel-stage conversion values
Assign a value to each stage of your funnel, based on how often that stage leads to revenue and what that revenue is worth.
Lead quality valuation
Estimate the value of individual leads using what you know about them, so two leads at the same stage can carry different values.
How we approach value modeling
1. Map stages to revenue
Measure how often each funnel stage turns into revenue, and how much.
2. Calculate the values
Turn those rates into a value for each stage and type of lead.
3. Send values to platforms
Pass the values to your ad platforms, so bidding can use them.
4. Recalibrate
Update the values as your conversion rates and revenue change.
How this connects to the loop
From Measurement
Funnel-stage and revenue data show how often each stage turns into a sale.
To Optimization
Values feed value-based bidding, so budget follows the leads worth the most.
Common questions
What is a conversion value?
A conversion value is a number attached to a conversion that tells ad platforms and reports how much that action is worth to your business.
How do you calculate the value of a lead?
We start with how often leads like it become customers and what those customers are worth. Multiplying the two gives an estimated value, which can be refined with lead quality data.
Do we have to share our real revenue with ad platforms?
Not necessarily. Many companies send estimated or relative values, which guide bidding without exposing exact figures.
What if our sales cycle is long?
That's when value modeling helps most. Ad platforms only accept conversions within a limited window after the click, so a sale that closes months later may not count at all. Early-stage values give them a signal to learn from within that window.
More in Prediction
- Scoring & PropensityEstimate who is likely to convert and what they may be worth over time.
- ForecastingProject revenue and demand, and compare budget scenarios before you commit.
- Attribution & IncrementalityFind out what marketing really caused, using lift tests and mix modeling.
- Model OperationsMonitor your models and retrain them so they stay accurate.
Talk to us about value modeling
Tell us where your marketing stands today, and we'll show you what to do first.