What is a baseline in marketing?
In marketing measurement, a baseline is the amount of sales, leads, or other results you would expect without the marketing activity you're testing. Anything above the baseline is credited to that activity.
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Why a baseline matters
Some customers would buy whether or not they saw an ad. They come from brand reputation, word of mouth, repeat purchases, and seasonality. A baseline separates that natural demand from the demand your marketing created.
Without one, it's easy to credit campaigns for results that were already on their way.
How baselines are set
In an experiment, the control group provides the baseline. In a marketing mix model, the baseline is the part of sales the model can't tie to any media, which includes trend, seasonality, and base demand.
A baseline can also mean a starting point for comparison, such as your performance before a change. Whichever you use, state what it covers and what period it comes from.
Common questions
What is baseline sales?
Baseline sales are the sales you would expect without current marketing activity. They reflect factors like brand strength, loyal customers, and seasonal demand.
How do you find a baseline?
You can use a control group in an experiment, a statistical model such as marketing mix modeling, or a comparison to a similar past period. Each method has its own assumptions.
Does the baseline change over time?
Yes. Seasonality, market conditions, brand growth, and pricing all move it. A baseline that was right last year may not describe this quarter.
How is a baseline different from a benchmark?
A baseline is the expected result without a specific intervention. A benchmark is a reference point from other companies or past performance that you compare your results against.
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