What is marketing forecasting?
Marketing forecasting is the practice of using historical data and stated assumptions to estimate future results, such as traffic, leads, sales, or revenue. Teams use forecasts to set budgets, targets, and expectations.
Last reviewed .
How forecasting works
Methods range from simple trend lines in a spreadsheet to statistical time-series models and machine learning. Good forecasts account for seasonality, planned spend, pricing, and known events like promotions.
Many teams give a range or several scenarios, such as low, expected, and high, instead of a single number.
Keeping forecasts honest
Every forecast rests on assumptions, and it's only as good as they are. Write them down, so that when results differ you can tell whether the model or an assumption was wrong.
Compare forecasts with actual results regularly and adjust. New channels and sudden market shifts are the hardest to predict, so expect larger errors there.
Common questions
What data do you need to forecast?
At minimum, a consistent history of the metric you're predicting, along with spend and any known seasonal patterns. More history helps the model learn yearly cycles.
What is the difference between a forecast and a goal?
A forecast is your best estimate of what will happen under current plans. A goal is what you want to happen, and it may require changes to reach.
How accurate should a forecast be?
Accuracy depends on how stable your business is and how much data you have. Track the gap between forecast and actual to learn how much to trust yours.
How is forecasting different from scenario modeling?
Forecasting estimates the most likely outcome. Scenario modeling tests how results would change under different choices or conditions.
Want help putting this to work?
Tell us where your marketing stands today, and we'll show you what to do first.