What is conversion probability?
Conversion probability is the estimated chance that a particular person, lead, or click will complete a conversion, such as a purchase or form submission. It's usually produced by a predictive model and expressed as a percentage.
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How conversion probability is estimated
A model looks at past visitors and their outcomes, then learns which traits and behaviors go with converting. Inputs might include device, location, pages viewed, time on site, and past purchases.
For a new visitor, the model returns a probability based on how closely they resemble past converters.
Where it gets used
Automated bidding systems use predicted conversion probability to decide how much to bid for each auction. Lead scoring uses it to rank which leads sales should call first.
A probability is an estimate, not a promise. It works best when judged across many people, where high-scored groups should convert more often than low-scored ones.
Common questions
How is conversion probability different from conversion rate?
Conversion rate is what actually happened across a group in the past. Conversion probability is a forward-looking estimate for an individual or segment.
Does Google Ads use conversion probability?
Automated bid strategies on many ad platforms, including Google Ads, predict how likely a click or impression is to convert and adjust bids accordingly. The exact signals aren't published.
What data improves conversion probability models?
Accurate conversion tracking and enough conversion history matter most. Offline outcomes and first-party data can also improve the predictions.
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